The End Game?

Gonzalo Amaral claimed in the April 2019 Podcast Maddie that Scotland Yard and the McCanns were working on an End Game for the affair which would involve setting up a convicted German Paedophile currently in jail in Germany on an unrelated matter.  Clearly he had been tipped off that even 15 months ago Scotland Yard were trying to find a way to pin the abduction onto CB.

The surprising element of this year's Prime Suspect show is that rather than the normal press innuendo and Scotland Yard just one more suspect that needs to be followed up" we have a German Prosecutor seemingly driving the matter forward.  What are we to make of this?  It clearly has some attractions for both the McCanns and Scotland Yard. Their immediate goal has always seemed to keep the funding for Operation Grange going.  I don't think this  has ever been about getting money or finding Maddie.  It has been about taking control of the case and making sure that the tight restrictions on press freedom imposed by the "Ongoing Cases" status remains in place.  This year was going to be the most problematic to obtain more funds than for a while.  The Cameron and May regimes had been compromised by their initial willingness to  accept the farcical "investigate everyone EXCEPT the Prime Suspects" mandate. Whether this was done as a favour to Rebekkah Brooks as a close friend of David Cameron or as a quid pro quo for Murdock support in the election is not clear, but it meant that any move to lift the shroud of secrecy threatened Cameron and May with a political scandal as well as Gordon Brown.  Once BoJo took power he was in theory much less constrained however he was also swamped with an existential crisis for him to get Brexit pushed through and then immediately afterwards the Covid situation. Covid added to the McCann woes as the near bankruptcy of the country will make people  even more suspicious of continued funding of Operation Grange.  Therefore as things stood continued funding of Operation Grange looked highly problematic. The move against CB by the Germans and consequent tsunami of press interest has most likely secured Grange at least another year's funding.

The exact current status of CB in Kiel jail has taken some time to fully emerge but appears to be:

He is currently serving a relatively short sentence I believe relating to cannabis trading in Northern Germany.  He was apparently due to be considered for parole for that from the 7 June 2020 having served 2/3 of the sentence.  It would seem almost inconceivable that this will now be granted given the current controversy.  In late 2019 he was also convicted for the rape and assault of a 72 year old American lady in 2005 back in Luz.  The tip off that he might be involved seems to have come from police discussions with a "friend" of his back in 2017.  The main piece of evidence seems to have been a single hair with his DNA found on the old lady's bed.  There may also be another former friend of his who it is claimed took the opportunity of him being arrested on an earlier occasion to burgle his apartment and steal a video camera and two tapes.  His main line of defence that the hair might have got into her room because he petted the lady's cat in the  street outside seems not to have convinced the judge.  One of the tapes apparently depicted the rape/abuse of the old lady and another the rape/abuse of a young lady tied to a beam thought to be similar  to that found in the farm house he  was living in at the time. These tapes were apparently destroyed some time ago so that all there is is the witness account of a fellow criminal.  CB's lawyers seem to have appealed against the rape. As I understand it the main grounds being that he was extradited from Italy on a different charge and  therefore he is claiming that they had no right to try him on the  rape charge.  I think it is  reasonable to assume that given the torrent of  terrible publicity that has now happened, his chances of the appeal being sustained may be slim as the  appeal judge  will  be  under incredible pressure to keep him in jail.

I cannot see a deal they can do to encourage him to admit to abducting and killing Maddie in a credible  way.  He would have to be  given a life sentence with a  say 20 year minimum and any financial reward will be of little consequence if he  is  in jail.  I also think the idea that other prisoners will be so livid with him that someone  will murder him is also fantasy.  Most prisoners are well aware that people can get set up and will see  through this in a few minutes.  What is  possible however is that someone on the outside could pay a life prisoner to kill him.

In many ways CB  is  the  ideal fall guy to pin the crime on for the McCanns.  They cannot afford to have the case go to Court as the judicial process in either Portugal, UK or  Germany would all provide the defence an opportunity to reveal evidence that the McCanns and Scotland Yard for that matter would not want revealed.  A trial by Media is much more advantageous to the McCanns and seems to be  precisely what is happening.  With the backing of Murdock, BBC, Carter Ruck, Clarence Mitchell etc etc  against a penniless convicted granny rapist stuck in jail, they mus believe that it would be  next to impossible to lose a Trial by Media.  I think the  net result of the Trial by Media will be  that his rape case appeal will be  denied and he  may also be  charged with other crimes that he  may have committed  over the years.  They would (one might hope) feel a tad guilty if they were to put an entirely innocent man in jail for many years but they will probably think well this  guy deserves to be  in jail  for  his  other  crimes so we can speak soundly.

So my best guess  as to what will happen.

1     Scotland Yard will be  funded to continue Operation Grange for another  year.

2    He can only be tried in Germany or Portugal it seems at least once we have fully left the EU. Portugal will not wish to try him so it will be left to Germany.  I believe it unlikely that they will obtain the additional evidence to provide a compelling rather than circumstantial case 

3    CB will be made to serve his 7 year rape  sentence  plus  whatever else they can throw at him.

4    The McCanns may claim to have had a moral victory at least with the  supposed  perpetrator behind bars and finally close the search for Maddie nonsense

5    Assorted British politicians and Media  people  will sleep a  little sounder in their beds.